EUR/USD: the week of 28 Sept–2 Oct
The 30-second summary
EUR/USD experienced a highly event-driven week, dictated by central bank communications and tier-one economic releases. Early sessions saw range-bound consolidation amidst speeches from ECB and Federal Reserve officials. Later in the week, hotter Eurozone inflation data and disappointing US economic releases—most notably weak consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and a broad miss in US Nonfarm Payrolls—drove significant volatility spikes and US dollar weakness across multiple trading windows.
The week at a glance
Monday 28 September
Central bank speeches lead to cautious trading
Price action remained consolidated during Asia and stayed cautious through London and New York as ECB and FOMC officials delivered scheduled remarks.
Tuesday 29 September
US consumer and employment data trigger volatility
European inflation beats were followed by weak US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings, prompting sharp US dollar weakness in New York.
Wednesday 30 September
Conflicting growth and inflation data produce multi-stage swings
Traders navigated a dense calendar featuring hotter German inflation alongside cooling US PCE data and robust US GDP figures.
Thursday 1 October
Manufacturing PMIs and strong US jobless claims shift focus
Morning Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs preceded strong US labour claims and manufacturing data, which briefly supported the US dollar.
Friday 2 October
US Nonfarm Payrolls miss reshapes market sentiment
A double wave of data saw elevated volatility following a higher Eurozone CPI reading and a broad miss in US employment figures.
What moved the market
- Scheduled speeches from ECB President Lagarde and FOMC officials created cautious conditions early in the week.
- Disappointing US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings data generated notable US dollar weakness on Tuesday.
- Conflicting macroeconomic signals, including hotter German CPI alongside cooling US PCE data, created multi-stage volatility mid-week.
- A broad miss in US Nonfarm Payrolls and rising unemployment on Friday shifted afternoon market sentiment.
What traders could have done
- Waited for initial reactions to subside following high-impact data releases before assessing structural setups.
- Monitored scheduled central bank speaker windows to avoid entering positions during periods of fragmented price flow.
- Maintained strict risk management parameters ahead of overlapping tier-one economic announcements from both the Eurozone and the US.
Lessons from the week
Lesson 1
Patience around scheduled speeches
When central bank commentary dominates the calendar, price flow often becomes hesitant and fragmented, making it prudent to wait for clear session boundaries to establish.
Lesson 2
Managing multi-stage data releases
Days with tier-one announcements from both sides of the Atlantic frequently produce conflicting moves, requiring traders to avoid treating initial spikes as definitive signals.
Lesson 3
Respecting major economic shifts
Significant deviations in tier-one labour data, such as Nonfarm Payrolls, can rapidly alter sentiment, highlighting the importance of clear exit strategies during volatile news windows.