EUR/USD: the week of 3 Aug–7 Aug
The 30-second summary
The week was defined by high-impact macroeconomic releases from both sides of the Atlantic. Strong US manufacturing data supported the US dollar on Monday, but subsequent misses in US private employment, JOLTs job openings, services sector growth, and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls pushed volatility higher and drove euro strength. Prepared traders navigated news-driven reactions across the London and New York sessions while managing execution risk.
The week at a glance
Monday 3 August
US manufacturing outperformance pressures EUR/USD
Disappointing Eurozone retail data during the London transition was followed by an upside surprise in US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment figures, bolstering the US dollar in New York.
Tuesday 4 August
Weak US JOLTs job openings alter market sentiment
Quiet overnight consolidation gave way to a busy European schedule before a significant miss in US JOLTs job openings reshaped sentiment during the New York session.
Wednesday 5 August
US private employment and services data miss expectations
EUR/USD experienced elevated volatility as a double-bill of US economic releases, including private employment and services sector growth, fell short of market forecasts.
Thursday 6 August
Opposing regional economic drivers create multi-stage volatility
Weaker Eurozone retail sales and industrial production collided with a mixed US labour data stack, testing trader discipline across both European and US sessions.
Friday 7 August
US Non-Farm Payrolls miss sparks EUR/USD rally
Following steady morning trade and upbeat European figures, EUR/USD rallied significantly as the US Non-Farm Payrolls report underperformed expectations.
What moved the market
- Eurozone economic prints, including weak retail sales and industrial production metrics early in the week.
- US ISM manufacturing data outperforming forecasts with stronger PMI and employment components on Monday.
- Softening US labour metrics, highlighted by JOLTs job openings misses and weak private employment figures.
- A significant underperformance in the Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which reduced US dollar demand.
What traders could have done
- Waited for scheduled news releases to pass before considering execution to avoid initial spread widening and slippage.
- Monitored price behaviour during the London and New York session overlap following major macroeconomic announcements.
- Maintained disciplined position sizing to accommodate the elevated volatility surrounding US labour market events.
Lessons from the week
Lesson 1
Patience around scheduled economic releases
Entering positions immediately during a high-impact news release carries heightened risk due to erratic order flow and wider spreads. Waiting for the initial reaction to calm allows traders to evaluate confirmed market behaviour.
Lesson 2
Adapting to opposing fundamental drivers
When Eurozone and US data point in opposite directions, directional momentum can stall or become erratic. Identifying conflicting macroeconomic drivers helps traders adjust their expectations regarding market continuity.
Lesson 3
Cumulative impact of employment indicators
Sequential misses in US labour metrics throughout the week incrementally weakened US dollar sentiment, setting the stage for a prominent market reaction when the primary Non-Farm Payrolls data missed forecasts.