USD/JPY: the week of 26 Oct–30 Oct
The 30-second summary
USD/JPY closed the week higher, opening at 156.88081 and finishing at 157.55809, a gain of 0.43 per cent across a 1.67476 point range. Fundamental drivers included the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.00 per cent, robust US third-quarter GDP growth of 3.4 per cent, and US Durable Goods Orders beating expectations. Price action peaked at 158.33594, remaining just below the previous week high of 158.39021.
The week at a glance
Monday 26 October
Range establishment and US activity data
USD/JPY established initial session boundaries during quiet Asian trading. Mid-tier US data provided support, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index printing at 0.07 alongside a Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index reading of 9.8.
Tuesday 27 October
US Durable Goods Orders outperform expectations
Price action navigated a heavy US data schedule. US Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8 per cent against a 1.5 per cent forecast, while New Home Sales reached 676K, strengthening the dollar leg of the pair.
Wednesday 28 October
Federal Reserve maintains policy rate at 4.00%
Trading was defensive ahead of the central bank announcement. The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 4.00 per cent, leading to consolidated price structure into the press conference.
Thursday 29 October
US GDP growth surprises to the upside
US advance GDP growth printed at 3.4 per cent quarterly, exceeding the 3.2 per cent forecast. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—the Fed's preferred inflation metric—matched expectations at 0.3 per cent month-on-month.
Friday 30 October
Week-end consolidation following APAC central bank updates
Market sentiment digested Asia-Pacific central bank outcomes and regional economic releases, leaving USD/JPY to settle near 157.55809 to complete an overall higher weekly trajectory.
What moved the market
- Federal Reserve monetary policy stance: The US central bank maintained interest rates at 4.00 per cent, preserving yield differentials.
- US economic growth data: Advance US quarterly GDP grew by 3.4 per cent, surpassing the 3.2 per cent consensus forecast and bolstering greenback strength.
- US manufacturing and order metrics: US Durable Goods Orders expanded by 1.8 per cent month-on-month against an expected 1.5 per cent.
- Inflation tracking: US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index printed at 0.3 per cent month-on-month, aligning with market expectations.
- Japanese economic indicators: Tokyo Unemployment Rate registered at 2.4 per cent alongside a Japanese Consumer Confidence reading of 35.0.
What the chart said
- USD/JPY moved higher overall, opening at 156.88081 and closing at 157.55809, gaining 0.67728 points (0.43 per cent).
- The weekly trading range spanned 1.67476 points, with a high of 158.33594 and a low of 156.66118.
- The peak at 158.33594 tested near the previous week high of 158.39021, whilst remaining above the previous week low of 156.06874.
- The largest single-day move occurred on Monday 26 October, covering an absolute distance of 0.61828 points (0.394 per cent).
- On the daily timeframe, price closed above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)—an indicator showing average price over 50 periods—at 157.33116, but below the 200-period SMA at 159.08997.
- On the 4-hour timeframe, price finished above the 50 MA (157.35328) and below the 200 MA (157.83825).
- On the 1-hour timeframe, price closed below the 50 MA (157.64036) and above the 200 MA (157.33291).
What traders could have done
- Monitored published pre-session plans to defer immediate trade execution until scheduled US data releases, such as the Chicago Fed Index, had concluded.
- Observed technical interactions around key structural levels, including the previous week high of 158.39021 and daily moving average references.
- Managed position risk around high-impact calendar windows, notably the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and advance US GDP release.
Lessons from the week
Lesson 1
Patience around scheduled economic catalysts
High-impact releases like FOMC rate decisions and GDP figures generate short-term volatility. Waiting for post-release market structure to settle helps traders avoid execution slippage.
Lesson 2
Respecting multi-timeframe moving average confluence
Observing how price interacts with key technical references—such as being above the daily 50 SMA (157.33116) while below the 200 SMA (159.08997)—provides context on underlying trend conflicts.
Lesson 3
Tracking historical boundaries for resistance
Price stalled at 158.33594, just below the previous week high of 158.39021. Prior technical extreme levels frequently act as decision zones where buying momentum can diminish.