Published:
Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022
September producer prices rose 0.6% m/m and 6.3% y/y, with energy continuing to drive inflationary pressure; underlying inflation pressures increased to 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually, while core PPI excluding food, energy and trade rose 0.5% m/m and 5% y/y. The report follows CPI figures showing 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y headline inflation and 2.6% y/y core.
The September producer price index signalled renewed inflation pressure, with wholesale prices rising 0.6% month on month and 6.3% year on year. CNBC reports that both readings came in hotter than economists expected, and that the annual gain was the largest since 2022. The underlying inflation pressure measure mentioned in the report rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, also described as the biggest monthly and annual increases since early 2022.
Energy was a key factor. CNBC links the acceleration to the U.S. war with Iran, saying the Middle East conflict curtailed oil supply and pushed prices higher. By contrast, a stripped-down PPI excluding food, energy and trade rose by 0.5% in September and 5% year on year, suggesting that the inflation impulse is not confined only to the most volatile categories.
The report arrives after the CPI release showed 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y headline inflation, while core CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y. CNBC also notes that the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reportedly had a record-high number of mentions of terms related to inflation.
For FX traders, the next watch is whether producer-price strength broadens further beyond energy and whether core measures continue to firm, as that would affect how markets size the path of rate expectations and the inflation risk premium for the dollar.
Why this matters for FX
Higher producer inflation—particularly energy-driven—can reinforce concerns that consumer inflation is sticky, influencing expectations for Fed policy and real yields. That can move USD via the inflation-risk premium and tighten or loosen financial conditions, while also highlighting a macro linkage from geopolitical oil supply shocks to broad price pressures.