Published:
Contributions to the 12-month rate of CPI(H) by import intensity: September 2026
A longer time series decomposing CPIH/CPI inflation into components by import intensity for September 2026.
The ONS has published a release providing contributions to the 12-month rate of CPIH and CPI by import intensity for September 2026, alongside a longer time series. CPIH includes owner occupiers’ housing costs, while CPI focuses on consumer prices without that element, so the dataset is designed to give a more structured view of where inflation is coming from.
For FX context, splitting price changes by import intensity is a way to assess the extent to which inflation is being influenced by foreign price movements, exchange-rate pass-through, and global supply conditions versus domestically generated pressures. In practice, when imported components explain more of the inflation rate, it can imply a different persistence profile than if domestic components dominate.
The release is scheduled for follow-up on 18 November 2026. Traders should watch how the import-intensity contributions evolve across subsequent months and whether the decomposition suggests a shift in the balance between external and domestic drivers of CPIH/CPI inflation.
Why this matters for FX
Import-intensity decompositions help FX traders interpret whether UK inflation pressures are being driven by imported goods/services versus domestic factors. That distinction matters for how persistent inflation may be and therefore how it could shape expectations for Bank of England policy, particularly when CPIH/CPI are in focus.