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EUR/USD · FreePublicIssue №40

Historical Trading Plan

Viewing the published Trading Plan for WEDNESDAY 5 AUGUST. Live market monitoring is only available for today's Trading Plan.

AsianLondonNew York

Today's Outlook

Patient Trading Day

Key USD updates at 13:15 and 15:00 UK make patience important, with cleaner opportunities likely after the market reacts in the London/New York overlap. Scheduled news does not predict whether price will rise or fall, so avoid chasing the first spike and wait for a clear setup.

Trading summary checklist
Volatility
Elevated
Liquidity
Normal
Sentiment
Cautious
Difficulty
Hard

Today’s Events

All times UK time
  • 01:00

    Croatia Homeland Thanksgiving Day

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 02:00PHP

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    -0.2%
    Forecast
    0.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 02:00PHP

    Core Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    4.4%
    Forecast
    4.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 02:00PHP

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    6.4%
    Forecast
    6.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 04:20THB

    Core Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    1.23%
    Forecast
    1.42%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 04:20THB

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.42%
    Forecast
    2.55%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 04:35JPY

    BoJ JGB Purchase

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 05:00IDR

    GDP Growth Rate QoQ

    Previous
    -0.77%
    Forecast
    3.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 05:00IDR

    GDP Growth Rate YoY

    Previous
    5.61%
    Forecast
    5.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 05:30INR

    RBI Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    5.25%
    Forecast
    5.25%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 05:30INR

    Cash Reserve Ratio

    Previous
    3.0%
    Forecast
    3.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 06:00EUR

    Industrial Production MoM

    Previous
    -0.3%
    Forecast
    0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 06:00EUR

    Industrial Production YoY

    Previous
    -3.1%
    Forecast
    -3.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 06:00SGD

    Retail Sales MoM

    Previous
    -2.2%
    Forecast
    -0.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 06:00SGD

    Retail Sales YoY

    Previous
    2.9%
    Forecast
    4.8%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:30SEK

    Services PMI

    Previous
    56.5
    Forecast
    55.5
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 07:45EUR

    Industrial Production MoM

    Previous
    -0.1%
    Forecast
    0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    Volatility usually increases as European banks start trading.

  • 08:00CZK

    Retail Sales YoY

    Previous
    4.7%
    Forecast
    3.9%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00CZK

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    -0.3%
    Forecast
    0.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00CZK

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    1.5%
    Forecast
    1.7%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 08:00CZK

    Retail Sales MoM

    Previous
    1.3
    Forecast
    0.2
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00

    Jordan PPI YoY

    Previous
    6.6%
    Forecast
    6.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00

    Armenia Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    5.1%
    Forecast
    5.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:00GBP

    New Car Sales YoY

    Previous
    11.4%
    Forecast
    10.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:20TWD

    Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Previous
    $597.15B
    Forecast
    $597.2B
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:25DKK

    DGB Auction

    Previous
    2.41%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 09:25DKK

    2035 DGB Auction

    Previous
    2.91%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    PPI YoY

    Previous
    5.9%
    Forecast
    4.6%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00EUR

    PPI MoM

    Previous
    0.2%
    Forecast
    -0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00NOK

    House Price Index MoM

    Previous
    0.4
    Forecast
    0.4
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:00NOK

    House Price Index YoY

    Previous
    3.9%
    Forecast
    4.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05NOK

    NGB Auction

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05SEK

    2036 SGB Auction

    Previous
    2.6783%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:05NOK

    06/2036 NGB Auction

    Previous
    4.24%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30EUR

    Green Bond Auction

    Previous
    2.49%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30EUR

    30-Year Bund/g Auction

    Previous
    3.57%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 10:30EUR

    10-Year Bund/g Auction

    Previous
    2.98%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00EUR

    New Car Registrations YoY

    Previous
    15.7%
    Forecast
    5.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00EUR

    Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    2.2%
    Forecast
    3.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00EUR

    Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.1%
    Forecast
    0.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00

    Macedonia Balance of Trade

    Previous
    $-311.0M
    Forecast
    $-350.0M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00MXN

    Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Previous
    $255.05B
    Forecast
    $255.3B
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:00

    Serbia PPI YoY

    Previous
    7.0%
    Forecast
    6.5%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:10EUR

    3-Month Bill Auction

    Previous
    2.371%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:10EUR

    6-Month Bill Auction

    Previous
    2.532%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:10EUR

    12-Month Bill Auction

    Previous
    2.724%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 11:30RUB

    Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00RUB

    Vehicle Sales YoY

    Previous
    27.5%
    Forecast
    25.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Applications

    Previous
    -6.4
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Market Index

    Previous
    247.2
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Purchase Index

    Previous
    159.8
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate

    Previous
    6.76
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:00USD

    MBA Mortgage Refinance Index

    Previous
    723.1
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 12:30INR

    M3 Money Supply YoY

    Previous
    12.5%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    London and New York overlap — the most active period of the day.

  • 13:00HUF

    Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:00MXN

    Gross Fixed Investment MoM

    Previous
    4.0%
    Forecast
    -1.8%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:00MXN

    Gross Fixed Investment YoY

    Previous
    5.9%
    Forecast
    0.3%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:15USD

    ADP Employment Change

    Previous
    98.0K
    Forecast
    70.0K
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 13:30USD

    Treasury Refunding Announcement

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00

    Albania Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    2.5%
    Forecast
    2.75%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00

    Tunisia Inflation Rate MoM

    Previous
    0.2%
    Forecast
    0.1%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00

    Tunisia Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    5.3%
    Forecast
    5.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00USD

    ISM Services Employment

    Previous
    51.2
    Forecast
    52.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00USD

    ISM Services Prices

    Previous
    67.7
    Forecast
    66.2
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00USD

    ISM Services New Orders

    Previous
    55.1
    Forecast
    55.3
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00USD

    ISM Services Business Activity

    Previous
    55.4
    Forecast
    56.0
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:00USD

    ISM Services PMI

    Previous
    54.0
    Forecast
    54.5
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change

    Previous
    0.271
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Crude Oil Imports Change

    Previous
    -0.237
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    -0.771
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Gasoline Production Change

    Previous
    0.178
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Gasoline Stocks Change

    Previous
    0.007
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    0.308
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Distillate Stocks Change

    Previous
    1.062
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change

    Previous
    0.015
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 15:30USD

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

    Previous
    -7.167M
    Forecast
    -1.5M
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 16:30USD

    17-Week Bill Auction

    Previous
    3.875%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 17:00EUR

    New Car Registrations YoY

    Previous
    11.4%
    Forecast
    6.2%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 17:00CAD

    2-Year Bond Auction

    Previous
    2.918%
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 18:40

    Uruguay Inflation Rate YoY

    Previous
    4.25%
    Forecast
    4.4%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 21:05USD

    Fed Cook Speech

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 22:00Scheduled
    Market timing

    Spreads widen and liquidity thins as the trading day rolls over.

  • 22:30BRL

    Interest Rate Decision

    Previous
    14.25%
    Forecast
    14.0%
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 23:00COP

    Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    Previous
    —
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 00:00KRW

    Current Account

    Previous
    38.61
    Forecast
    34.7
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 00:50JPY

    Stock Investment by Foreigners

    Previous
    912.1
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming
  • 00:50JPY

    Foreign Bond Investment

    Previous
    -811.4
    Forecast
    —
    Actual / Status
    Upcoming

Today's Trading Windows

Your trading day, in chronological order.

  • 08:00-11:45 UK

    —

    Fair WindowUpcoming

    Early London Structure

    Use this window to define intraday ranges and take only already-formed setups.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionUpcoming

    The completed EUR release is behind the market, and the first major USD risk is still later. London liquidity is active, giving cleaner reference levels before the US calendar.

  • 11:50-12:10 UK

    —

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 12:00 UK

    Watch only unless spreads and price action stay calm.

    Volatility · High
    Related toLondon SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming

    The event is medium impact and lacks forecast context in the supplied calendar. It is not the main risk, but it can disturb USD pairs around midday.

  • 12:15-13:00 UK

    —

    Caution WindowUpcoming

    Midday Reset

    Good for planning, not forcing trades, ahead of the first high-impact USD release.

    Volatility · Quiet
    Related toLondon SessionUpcoming

    The 12:00 UK mortgage-rate event is medium impact, while 13:15 UK ADP is the next major risk. This gap is better used for preparation than fresh exposure.

  • 13:05-13:35 UK

    —

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    ADP Employment Change at 13:15 UK

    Avoid new entries and do not chase the first move.

    Volatility · High
    Related toUSD ADP Employment Change · 13:15London SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming

    ADP Employment Change is a high-impact USD release with a forecast and previous value supplied. Execution risk is highest around the release itself.

  • 13:35-14:45 UK

    —

    Fair WindowUpcoming

    Post ADP Reaction

    Look for confirmed structure only; keep trades short and controlled before 15:00 UK.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionHigh liquidityUpcoming

    This window follows the 13:15 UK high-impact release but sits before the next high-impact USD event. It can be usable if price forms clear levels quickly.

  • 14:50-15:15 UK

    —

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UK

    Avoid new entries until the first reaction has passed.

    Volatility · High
    Related toUSD ISM Services PMI · 15:00London SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming

    ISM Services PMI is a high-impact USD release inside the active US session. It can reset earlier USD moves and affect all USD-linked markets.

  • 15:20-15:45 UK

    —

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    EIA Gasoline Stocks Change and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 15:30 UK

    Avoid Brent entries and watch oil reaction before trading.

    Volatility · High
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming

    Both oil stock events are medium impact and arrive together. The same-time release raises execution risk for Brent.

  • 15:45-17:00 UK

    —

    Best WindowUpcoming

    Post US Data Window

    Best window for patient traders if the market has formed a clear post-news range or breakout.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toLondon SessionLondon / NY OverlapNew York SessionHigh liquidityUpcoming

    The 15:00 UK ISM release and 15:30 UK oil stock data have passed by this point. London/New York liquidity remains active, and the main scheduled US data risk is reduced.

  • 17:00-20:45 UK

    —

    Fair WindowUpcoming

    Late US Session

    Trade only if structure remains clear; avoid drifting conditions before the later Fed speech.

    Volatility · Moderate
    Related toNew York SessionUpcoming

    This period comes after the main data cluster and before the 21:05 UK Fed speech. It can remain usable if spreads are stable and price respects levels.

  • 20:55-21:20 UK

    —

    Dangerous WindowUpcoming

    Fed Cook Speech at 21:05 UK

    Watch USD exposure and avoid late impulsive entries.

    Volatility · High
    Related toNew York SessionExecution risk elevatedUpcoming

    The Fed speech is medium impact and comes after the main data releases. It can affect late USD trading conditions even without forecast or previous values.

Today's Guidance

Treat 13:15 and 15:00 UK as no-chase periods: wait for a candle to close beyond your level rather than entering on a wick, and consider smaller size if price is moving sharply.

Today's guidance illustration

Today's Trading Checklist

Run through every step below before placing a trade today.

Statuses update automatically as today's plan and trading windows progress. They show when each point is most relevant — you still confirm the trading conditions on the chart.

  1. Step 01Plan closed

    Protect open trades before the main USD releases; do not widen stops just to stay in.

  2. Step 02Plan closed

    Use London levels as reference points, but demand a candle close before treating a break as valid.

  3. Step 03Plan closed

    Be selective between 13:15 and 15:30 UK because several USD-linked reactions can overlap.

Use this checklist to guide today’s trading session.

Tip: Copy this checklist into today’s Workspace and tick items off as you trade.

Trading checklist illustration

Build the habit. Understand the market.

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