US Core Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Published:
A monthly measure of underlying US consumer-price inflation that excludes food and energy.
Full explanation
US Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) measures the monthly change in prices paid by urban consumers for a broad basket of goods and services, excluding food and energy. Removing those categories is intended to reduce the influence of items that can move sharply from month to month. The measure is reported as a seasonally adjusted monthly percentage change within the US Consumer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why traders watch it
It is closely watched because underlying consumer-price pressure can affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy, US interest-rate pricing, Treasury yields and USD sentiment.
Market interpretation
- US dollar
- Unexpected changes can alter perceptions of US inflation and the likely policy outlook.
- US Treasury market
- The release can affect interest-rate expectations and yield movements, particularly at shorter maturities.
- Equities and other risk assets
- It can influence discount-rate expectations and overall risk sentiment.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected reading may be interpreted as firmer underlying inflation pressure and may influence expectations for a less accommodative policy outlook. A lower-than-expected reading may be interpreted as softer underlying price pressure, subject to the broader inflation, activity and policy backdrop.
A higher-than-expected monthly core CPI reading may be seen as evidence of firmer underlying inflation momentum, although the detail behind the result remains important.
A lower-than-expected monthly core CPI reading may be seen as evidence of softer underlying inflation momentum, although a single month may not establish a trend.
Higher or lower readings are commonly assessed against expectations and the composition of price changes.
Typical volatility
High. The food and energy exclusions do not make this a complete measure of household inflation. Shelter and other large components can materially affect the result, while seasonal adjustment, base effects and the relationship to headline CPI can complicate comparisons.
Trading considerations
- Compare the actual result with both the market consensus and the prior reading.
- Review major components, especially shelter and core services, rather than relying only on the headline core figure.
- Consider the accompanying headline CPI measures, which include food and energy.
- Watch for revisions, seasonal-adjustment effects and changes in the annual rate alongside the monthly result.
- Liquidity and spreads may change around the scheduled release time.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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