US Consumer Credit
Published:
A monthly Federal Reserve report covering non-mortgage credit extended to US consumers.
Full explanation
US Consumer Credit is a monthly Federal Reserve report on borrowing by individuals for household, family and other personal spending. It covers credit not secured by real estate, so it excludes mortgages. The release reports outstanding consumer credit and changes in total credit, revolving credit—largely credit cards—and nonrevolving credit, which includes loans such as vehicle, education and personal loans. Figures are presented with seasonal-adjustment measures and can be revised.
Why traders watch it
It offers a late-month view of household borrowing and credit use, which can inform assessments of consumer demand, financial conditions and the outlook for US growth and interest rates.
Market interpretation
- US dollar
- Unexpected changes can influence views of consumer demand, financial conditions and the potential path of US interest rates.
- US Treasury yields
- Rates markets may reassess growth and policy expectations when borrowing trends materially differ from expectations.
- US equity markets
- The detail can affect perceptions of consumer-sensitive sectors and household balance-sheet conditions.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A larger-than-expected rise in credit may be interpreted as evidence of stronger borrowing or spending capacity, while a smaller rise or decline may be interpreted as more cautious borrowing or tighter household credit conditions. The meaning depends on whether revolving or nonrevolving credit drives the result and on wider consumer data.
A higher-than-expected increase may be viewed as stronger household borrowing, though its implications differ if the increase is concentrated in credit cards rather than installment lending.
A lower-than-expected increase, or a decline, may be viewed as softer borrowing demand or more restrictive credit conditions, subject to the component details.
Compare the total result with revolving and nonrevolving credit, and consider revisions to prior months.
Typical volatility
Moderate. Consumer-credit growth does not directly measure retail spending or household financial health. The release excludes mortgage borrowing, is reported partly as annualized changes, and may be affected by revisions, seasonal adjustment and shifts in lending conditions.
Trading considerations
- Check whether the move is driven by revolving or nonrevolving credit rather than the total alone.
- Review prior-month revisions before comparing the latest figure with consensus expectations.
- Use the release alongside retail sales, personal income and spending, labor-market data and lending-condition indicators.
- Be aware that published growth rates can be annualized and seasonally adjusted, which can make month-to-month comparisons less intuitive.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
A monthly, payroll-data-based measure of changes in US private-sector employment.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.