S&P Global US Composite PMI Final
Published:
A monthly final survey reading on business activity across the US manufacturing and services sectors.
Full explanation
The S&P Global US Composite PMI Final is a monthly survey-based indicator of private-sector business activity in the United States. It combines manufacturing output and services business activity into a single diffusion index, where 50 separates overall expansion from contraction compared with the previous month. S&P Global compiles it from responses from US manufacturers and service providers, and the final reading updates the earlier flash estimate using a more complete set of survey returns.
Why traders watch it
It offers a relatively early, broad read on US private-sector momentum. Unexpected results can affect expectations for economic growth, inflation pressure and the likely path of Federal Reserve policy, with possible implications for the US dollar and interest-rate markets.
Market interpretation
- US dollar
- Surprises may shift views on relative US economic momentum and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
- US Treasury yields
- The activity and price components may influence expectations for growth, inflation and policy rates.
- US equity index futures
- The release may affect assessments of demand conditions, margins and the interest-rate outlook.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A reading above expectations, or a move further above 50, may be viewed as evidence of firmer private-sector activity. A reading below expectations, or a move further below 50, may be viewed as a sign of softer activity. The response can also depend on the report's prices, employment, new-orders and sector-level details.
A higher-than-expected reading, particularly if it moves further above 50, may be interpreted as firmer private-sector activity.
A lower-than-expected reading, particularly if it moves further below 50, may be interpreted as softer private-sector activity.
Above 50 signals expansion; below 50 signals contraction compared with the prior month.
Typical volatility
Moderate. This is a survey diffusion index rather than a direct measure of output or spending. The final figure can revise the earlier flash estimate, and its signal may differ from later official economic statistics.
Trading considerations
- Compare the final reading with the earlier flash estimate as well as the consensus expectation.
- Review new orders, employment and prices components instead of relying only on the headline composite index.
- Consider the simultaneous US services PMI final, which contributes to the composite measure.
- Be aware that liquidity and spreads can change around scheduled US data releases.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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