US Consumer Inflation Expectations (New York Fed)
Published:
New York Fed median one-year-ahead household inflation expectation, in percent.
Full explanation
US Consumer Inflation Expectations here is the median one-year-ahead expected inflation rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), a monthly rotating panel of about 1,300 US households. It is expressed in percent and not seasonally adjusted. The New York Fed publishes it around the second Monday of the following month, together with three- and five-year-ahead expectations. It is a different survey from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, whose inflation expectations figures are often higher and are released on other dates.
Why traders watch it
Household inflation expectations matter to the Federal Reserve because they can feed into wages and prices.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher reading suggests households expect faster inflation, which can support expectations of tighter Fed policy; a lower reading the opposite.
A higher reading means households expect faster inflation.
A lower reading means they expect slower inflation.
Higher = households expect more inflation over the next year.
Release details
- Release frequency
- Monthly (around the second Monday of the next month)
Typical volatility
Low. Not the University of Michigan inflation expectations; the two surveys use different samples and questions. This name refers to the one-year horizon.
Trading considerations
- Compare with the three- and five-year horizons.
- Do not compare directly with the Michigan figure.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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