Italian Consumer Price Index Ex Tobacco (YoY)
Published:
A monthly measure of annual consumer-price changes for Italian blue- and white-collar households, excluding tobacco products.
Full explanation
Italian Consumer Price Index Ex Tobacco (YoY) measures the annual change in consumer prices paid by Italian blue- and white-collar households, excluding tobacco products. It compares the index level for a given month with the same month a year earlier. Istat compiles the FOI index from a weighted basket of household goods and services, using consumer-price information collected from multiple sources. The tobacco-excluded version is also used in Italy for statutory monetary revaluations, such as some rent adjustments.
Why traders watch it
It provides an additional reading on Italian consumer-price pressures and can help complete the inflation picture for the euro area. Although markets generally focus more closely on Italy’s NIC and HICP measures for monetary-policy analysis, an unexpected FOI result may still contribute to assessments of inflation persistence, euro-area rates and the euro.
Market interpretation
- EUR
- May add context to perceptions of Italian and euro-area inflation, particularly when it differs materially from other Italian price measures.
- Euro-area government bonds
- Can contribute to inflation and policy-expectations analysis, though NIC and HICP are typically more central market references.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected annual rate may be interpreted as firmer consumer-price pressure among the households covered by the FOI index, while a lower reading may be seen as softer pressure. Market interpretation can depend on the gap versus the NIC and HICP measures, the categories driving the change, and movements in energy and services prices.
A higher-than-expected year-on-year reading may be viewed as evidence of firmer price growth within the FOI basket.
A lower-than-expected year-on-year reading may be viewed as evidence of softer price growth within the FOI basket.
Higher readings can suggest firmer price growth in the FOI basket, while lower readings can suggest softer growth; comparisons with NIC and HICP remain important.
Typical volatility
Moderate. This is a tobacco-excluded index for a specific household population, so it is not interchangeable with Italy’s headline NIC inflation rate, core inflation, or the harmonised HICP measure. Basket weights, base-year updates and methodological changes can affect comparisons over time.
Trading considerations
- Check whether the release refers to the tobacco-excluded FOI index rather than headline NIC, core inflation or HICP.
- Compare the annual change with the monthly change and with the latest Italian NIC and HICP releases.
- Review the categories contributing to the result, especially energy, food and services.
- Allow for wider spreads and short-term repricing when inflation releases arrive close to other euro-area data or central-bank communication.
- Consider base effects, basket updates and historical-series breaks when comparing year-on-year rates across long periods.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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