Euro Area HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM)
Published:
A monthly measure of euro-area consumer-price changes excluding energy and food components.
Full explanation
Euro Area HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) measures the monthly change in consumer prices across the euro area after energy and unprocessed food are excluded (processed food, alcohol and tobacco remain). It is an underlying-inflation measure intended to reduce the influence of price categories that can move sharply from month to month. The index is compiled under the EU’s harmonised HICP framework, which applies common concepts across participating economies. The monthly rate compares the index with its level in the previous month.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch it for evidence on underlying euro-area inflation momentum, which may shape expectations for European Central Bank policy, euro-area bond yields and the euro.
Market interpretation
- EUR foreign-exchange pairs
- The release can influence how participants reassess the euro-area inflation outlook and possible European Central Bank policy expectations.
- Euro-area government bonds
- It can affect expectations for future interest rates and therefore attention to bond yields, especially when the result differs materially from consensus.
- European equity markets
- It may influence interest-rate expectations that feed into equity valuation and sector performance.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A result above expectations may be interpreted as firmer underlying monthly inflation pressure than anticipated, while a result below expectations may be interpreted as softer pressure. The reaction can depend on the annual rate, services inflation, wages, activity data and whether the release revises an earlier estimate.
A higher-than-expected monthly reading may be viewed as evidence of firmer underlying inflation momentum, subject to the wider inflation and activity backdrop.
A lower-than-expected monthly reading may be viewed as evidence of softer underlying inflation momentum, subject to the wider inflation and activity backdrop.
Higher-than-expected may suggest firmer underlying inflation momentum; lower-than-expected may suggest softer momentum.
Typical volatility
Moderate. Month-to-month inflation rates can be affected by seasonal patterns, base effects, methodology and revisions. Excluding energy and food does not capture every source of volatility or every measure used to assess underlying inflation.
Trading considerations
- Compare the result with both market expectations and the prior month’s reading.
- Check the year-on-year measure and other inflation components, particularly services, alongside the monthly figure.
- Distinguish between an initial estimate and later detailed or revised HICP data where applicable.
- Liquidity and spreads may change around major euro-area inflation releases.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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