Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY)
Published:
A measure of annual euro-area consumer-price inflation that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.
Full explanation
Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) measures the annual change in euro-area consumer prices excluding energy and unprocessed food (Eurostat series "overall index excluding energy and unprocessed food"). Processed food, alcohol and tobacco remain in the index, so it is a different series from the headline core measure that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. It is compiled under the harmonised HICP framework, allowing prices to be measured consistently across participating countries.
Why traders watch it
It is watched as an indication of underlying euro-area inflation pressures, which can influence expectations for European Central Bank policy, euro-area government bond yields and the euro.
Market interpretation
- EUR currency pairs
- The result can alter expectations for euro-area monetary policy and relative interest rates.
- Euro-area government bonds
- It can influence expectations for the policy-rate path and inflation-related yield movements.
- European equity markets
- It can affect views on financing conditions, household purchasing power and policy expectations.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A reading above expectations may be interpreted as firmer underlying inflation pressure than anticipated, while a reading below expectations may be interpreted as softer pressure. Its significance depends on the broader inflation mix, wage and activity data, and whether the result confirms or changes the earlier inflation estimate.
A higher-than-expected annual rate may be seen as evidence of firmer underlying inflation pressure than markets had anticipated.
A lower-than-expected annual rate may be seen as evidence of softer underlying inflation pressure than markets had anticipated.
Higher readings can suggest firmer underlying inflation pressure, while lower readings can suggest softer pressure, relative to expectations.
Typical volatility
Moderate. This measure excludes important household expenses and is not a complete cost-of-living measure. The annual rate can also be affected by base effects, weighting changes and revisions to underlying HICP data.
Trading considerations
- Compare the result with the earlier euro-area flash HICP estimate and note whether the detailed release revises it.
- Review headline HICP alongside the ex-energy-and-food measure, as the two can diverge when energy or food prices move sharply.
- Watch the market consensus and prior reading; the surprise relative to expectations often matters more than the level alone.
- Allow for potentially wider spreads and faster price changes around major euro-area inflation releases.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
A monthly, payroll-data-based measure of changes in US private-sector employment.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.