EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change
Published:
A weekly EIA measure of the change in crude oil processed by U.S. refineries, used to assess refinery demand and petroleum supply balances.
Full explanation
EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change tracks the weekly change in how much crude oil U.S. refineries process. It is a measure of refinery demand for crude oil, often described as crude oil inputs or refinery runs. The data are published in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which includes U.S. and regional petroleum supply, production, stocks, imports, exports and refinery activity. Higher refinery runs usually mean refineries are taking in more crude to make fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, while lower runs may reflect maintenance, outages, weaker margins or seasonal demand shifts.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch refinery crude runs because refinery demand is one link between crude inventories and refined-product supply. The release can affect crude oil, gasoline and distillate prices, and it can also feed into broader inflation and energy-market expectations relevant to USD assets.
Market interpretation
- Crude oil futures
- Can influence expectations for refinery demand and crude inventory draws or builds.
- Gasoline and distillate futures
- Can affect expectations for near-term refined-product supply.
- USD and inflation-sensitive assets
- Usually secondary, but large energy-price moves can affect inflation and risk sentiment.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A stronger-than-expected increase may point to firmer refinery demand for crude and could coincide with crude stock draws, but it may also increase future product supply. A weaker-than-expected or negative reading may suggest softer refinery demand or operational disruptions, with the market reaction depending on the accompanying crude and product inventory figures.
A higher-than-expected change suggests refineries processed more crude than expected. This may indicate stronger refinery demand for crude, though it can also imply greater future supply of refined products.
A lower-than-expected or negative change suggests refineries processed less crude than expected. This may reflect maintenance, outages, weaker margins or softer fuel-demand expectations.
Higher readings generally point to stronger refinery crude demand; lower readings point to reduced refinery crude demand, with the inventory context determining the market reaction.
Typical volatility
High. Refinery runs are highly seasonal and can be distorted by maintenance, hurricanes, freezes, regional outages and changes in refinery margins. The indicator should be read together with crude stocks, product stocks, imports, exports and refinery utilization rather than in isolation.
Trading considerations
- Compare refinery runs with crude oil stocks, gasoline stocks, distillate stocks and crude imports in the same EIA release.
- Check whether the move is seasonal, such as refinery maintenance periods or summer gasoline-demand preparation.
- Regional refinery disruptions can matter more for product spreads than for headline crude prices.
- Watch for revisions and for whether the change is consistent with refinery utilization and production data.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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