Conference Board Employment Trends Index
Published:
A monthly composite indicator that tracks underlying momentum in US employment conditions.
Full explanation
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index is a monthly composite measure designed to show the underlying direction of US employment conditions. It combines eight labor-market and related economic indicators into one index, rather than measuring a single survey or payroll count. Its components include unemployment-insurance claims, job openings, temporary-help employment, industrial production and measures drawn from business and consumer surveys. The Conference Board describes it as a leading composite index for payroll employment, so its turning points may help indicate changes in the trend of job gains or losses in coming months.
Why traders watch it
It offers a broad, supplementary view of US labor-market momentum after the Employment Situation report. Because labor conditions can influence expectations for growth, inflation and Federal Reserve policy, an unexpected change may affect USD and US interest-rate markets.
Market interpretation
- USD
- An unexpected change can influence perceptions of US labor-market momentum and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
- US Treasury yields
- Rates may react if the reading materially changes views on growth, inflation or the policy outlook.
- US equity index futures
- The release can contribute to changing expectations for economic activity and corporate demand, usually alongside other labor data.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected reading may be interpreted as evidence of firmer underlying employment conditions, while a lower-than-expected reading may be interpreted as softer momentum. The market response can depend on whether the move confirms or challenges other recent labor-market releases and policy expectations.
A higher reading can be viewed as a possible sign that underlying employment conditions are becoming firmer.
A lower reading can be viewed as a possible sign that underlying employment conditions are losing momentum.
Higher may suggest firmer US employment momentum; lower may suggest softer momentum.
Typical volatility
Moderate. This is a composite indicator, not the official payroll report, and some component data may be statistically imputed for recent months. Revisions to source data and changes in standardization factors can alter prior readings.
Trading considerations
- Compare the index with the latest Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims and JOLTS releases.
- Check both the headline move and the underlying components when available.
- Allow for revisions and statistical imputation in recent component observations.
- Monitor US rate expectations and broader risk conditions, which can shape the market response.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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