IMACEC Economic Activity YoY
Published:
Chile’s IMACEC year-on-year rate is the annual change in the Central Bank of Chile’s monthly economic activity index, a timely proxy for GDP momentum.
Full explanation
IMACEC Economic Activity YoY measures how Chile’s monthly economic activity changed compared with the same month a year earlier. IMACEC is the Central Bank of Chile’s Monthly Economic Activity Index, an estimate that summarizes activity across different branches of the economy. Its annual change is used as a monthly approximation of GDP growth, with activity indicators weighted according to their share in the previous year’s GDP. The central bank publishes the release on the first business day of the month with about a 31-day lag.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch IMACEC because it is one of Chile’s timeliest broad measures of economic momentum. Surprises can affect CLP, Chilean rates and equity sentiment by changing expectations for growth, fiscal dynamics and Central Bank of Chile policy risks.
Market interpretation
- FX
- CLP can respond when IMACEC changes expectations for Chilean growth, policy rates or commodity-linked activity.
- Rates
- Local yields may react if the data alter expectations for Central Bank of Chile policy or the growth-inflation mix.
- Equities
- Chilean equities may be affected through expectations for domestic demand, mining output and corporate earnings.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected YoY IMACEC reading may suggest stronger economic activity and firmer growth momentum. A lower-than-expected reading may suggest weaker activity, especially if the miss is broad-based across mining, trade and services rather than concentrated in one sector.
A higher-than-expected reading may indicate stronger economic activity and can support a more resilient growth assessment.
A lower-than-expected reading may indicate softer activity and can raise concern about weaker growth momentum.
The market usually focuses on the forecast surprise, the seasonally adjusted monthly change, and whether mining or non-mining activity drove the result.
Typical volatility
High. IMACEC can be affected by mining volatility, calendar effects and sector-specific shocks, so the mining and non-mining breakdown is important. Series are revised alongside quarterly and annual national accounts, and the annual rate can be influenced by the comparison base from the prior year.
Trading considerations
- Check the mining and non-mining split because mining volatility can dominate the headline result.
- Compare the year-on-year rate with the seasonally adjusted monthly change to distinguish trend from base effects.
- Watch copper prices and external-demand indicators when assessing the broader market reaction.
- Remember that IMACEC is revised with national accounts, so initial readings may not be the final view of activity.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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