Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM)
Published:
Monthly change in seasonally adjusted Canadian retail sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations and fuel vendors.
Full explanation
Canadian Core Retail Sales measures the monthly percentage change in seasonally adjusted retail sales at current prices, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations and fuel vendors. Removing these relatively volatile categories can provide a clearer view of underlying consumer spending trends. Statistics Canada publishes the figure each month from its Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Because it is measured at current prices, it is a nominal (value) measure and differs from the constant-dollar sales-volume figure, and it is a narrower measure than headline Retail Sales (MoM), which includes all retail categories.
Why traders watch it
It gives a timely read on Canadian household spending outside vehicles and fuel, which can shape expectations for growth, inflation and Bank of Canada policy.
Market interpretation
- Canadian dollar
- Can affect Bank of Canada expectations when the result differs materially from consensus.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
An Actual figure above Forecast may be read as firmer underlying consumer spending and can support the Canadian dollar; a figure below Forecast may be read as softer spending. Reactions also depend on revisions, the headline figure and the volume measure.
A higher-than-expected result may be read as firmer underlying Canadian consumer spending, subject to price effects and revisions.
A lower-than-expected result may be read as softer underlying Canadian consumer spending, subject to price effects and revisions.
Higher readings can suggest firmer core spending; lower readings softer, but it is a nominal measure and revisions matter.
Release details
- Release frequency
- Monthly
Typical volatility
medium. Core retail sales excludes both motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations and fuel vendors, so it is not simply retail sales excluding autos. It is a nominal measure at current prices, not adjusted for inflation, and is subject to revision.
Trading considerations
- Compare with the forecast and the revised prior month.
- Check headline Retail Sales and the volume (constant-dollar) figure.
- Remember the figure is at current prices, not inflation-adjusted.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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