Australia Import Price Index QoQ
Published:
Quarterly change in prices for merchandise imports landed in Australia, used to assess imported inflation pressure.
Full explanation
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the Import Price Index in the quarterly International Trade Price Indexes release. It measures price changes for merchandise imports landed in Australia, using prices from selected shipments, importers and administrative data sources. The quarter-on-quarter figure compares the index with the prior quarter rather than with the same quarter a year earlier.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch import prices because they can affect inflation pressure, business costs, terms of trade and Reserve Bank of Australia rate expectations, all of which can matter for AUD and Australian rates.
Market interpretation
- AUD
- May respond if import prices change inflation expectations or reflect large exchange-rate effects.
- Australian government bonds
- Can affect inflation and rate expectations at the margin, especially after a large surprise.
- Equity sectors
- Import-reliant retailers and manufacturers may be sensitive to changes in imported cost pressure.
- Inflation-linked assets
- Can add context for pipeline inflation, though CPI remains the dominant inflation release.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected import price reading can point to stronger imported inflation or currency-related cost pressure. A lower-than-expected reading can suggest easing import-cost pressure, although the market reaction depends on whether the move reflects exchange rates, global prices or domestic demand.
A higher-than-forecast reading typically suggests stronger imported price pressure, which may add to inflation concerns if sustained.
A lower-than-forecast reading typically suggests softer imported price pressure or easing global goods costs.
An in-line reading usually confirms the expected path for import-cost inflation.
Typical volatility
Moderate. The index covers merchandise imports rather than all consumer prices, and quarterly moves can be driven by exchange-rate changes, fuel prices or specific goods categories.
Trading considerations
- Separate exchange-rate effects from changes in underlying foreign-currency prices where possible.
- Look at fuel, capital goods and consumer-goods components for the source of the move.
- Compare the Import Price Index with CPI, PPI and trade-balance data.
- Quarterly data may be stale relative to fast-moving commodity and FX markets.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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