Australia Export Price Index QoQ
Published:
Quarterly change in prices for merchandise exports shipped from Australia, a key terms-of-trade indicator.
Full explanation
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the Export Price Index in the quarterly International Trade Price Indexes release. It measures price changes for merchandise exports shipped from Australia, using prices from selected shipments, exporters and administrative data sources. The quarter-on-quarter figure captures short-term changes in export prices compared with the previous quarter.
Why traders watch it
Traders watch export prices because they affect Australia’s terms of trade, company revenues in resource sectors, nominal income and the broader outlook for AUD.
Market interpretation
- AUD
- Can be sensitive to large export-price surprises that alter terms-of-trade expectations.
- Mining and resources equities
- Higher or lower export prices can affect revenue expectations for commodity producers.
- Australian government bonds
- May influence nominal growth and inflation expectations at the margin.
- Commodity-linked currencies
- Can contribute to broader sentiment toward commodity exporters when moves are driven by global prices.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A higher-than-expected export price reading can suggest stronger export earnings and improved terms of trade, especially when driven by key commodities. A lower-than-expected reading can suggest weaker export-income momentum, although the effect depends on volumes, commodity mix and exchange-rate moves.
A higher-than-forecast reading typically suggests stronger export-price momentum and potentially firmer terms of trade.
A lower-than-forecast reading typically suggests weaker export-price momentum and potentially softer terms of trade.
An in-line reading usually confirms expected export-price and terms-of-trade trends.
Typical volatility
Moderate. Export prices can be heavily influenced by commodity markets and may not directly translate into real growth if export volumes move differently.
Trading considerations
- Check whether the move is driven by major commodities such as iron ore, coal, LNG or gold.
- Compare price changes with export volumes to assess the trade-income signal.
- Watch the companion Import Price Index because the terms-of-trade effect depends on both export and import prices.
- Quarterly index data may lag real-time commodity-market developments.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
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