API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
Published:
A weekly estimate of the change in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, published by the American Petroleum Institute.
Full explanation
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks reports the estimated weekly change in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. It is part of the American Petroleum Institute's Weekly Statistical Bulletin, a survey-based report covering crude oil and major refined petroleum products. The crude-stock measure reflects barrels held in commercial storage, including lease stocks, but excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. API normally releases the bulletin before the U.S. government's weekly petroleum report.
Why traders watch it
Oil, refined-product and energy-linked currency markets watch the release as an early reading of changes in U.S. petroleum inventories and refinery conditions. A surprise can influence expectations for the following EIA weekly petroleum data.
Market interpretation
- Crude oil and refined-product markets
- May prompt repricing as participants assess the reported inventory change against expectations and other petroleum balances.
- Energy-linked currencies and inflation-sensitive rates markets
- May attract attention when the release materially changes expectations for oil prices or the subsequent EIA report.
Stronger vs weaker outcomes
A larger-than-expected build may indicate more crude held in commercial storage, while a larger-than-expected draw may indicate less. The market response can also depend on refinery runs, imports, production, product inventories and the extent to which the figures differ from expectations.
A higher-than-expected crude-stock reading means commercial crude inventories increased more than expected, or fell less than expected, during the reporting week. It may be read as one input suggesting relatively greater crude availability, subject to refinery activity, imports and demand conditions.
A lower-than-expected crude-stock reading means commercial crude inventories increased less than expected, or declined more than expected. It may be read as one input suggesting relatively lower crude availability, subject to refinery activity, imports and demand conditions.
Compare the reported weekly inventory change with consensus expectations and with refinery runs, imports, production and product-stock changes.
Typical volatility
High. API figures are survey-based estimates rather than a full census, and they can differ from the subsequent EIA estimates because coverage and estimation methods are not identical. Weekly inventory changes can also be affected by seasonal patterns, logistics and holiday-adjusted reporting schedules.
Trading considerations
- Compare the actual weekly change with the market consensus rather than focusing only on whether inventories rose or fell.
- Review gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization, crude imports and domestic production alongside crude stocks.
- Expect the subsequent EIA weekly petroleum report to be a separate event that can confirm or differ from the API estimate.
- Be aware that U.S. federal holidays can shift the usual release schedule and concentrate liquidity around altered reporting times.
Educational guidance only — never a trading signal or recommendation.
Related indicators
15-Year Mortgage Rate
A weekly Freddie Mac measure of average U.S. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing costs.
Absa Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey indicator tracking whether South African manufacturing conditions are improving or weakening.
ADP Employment Change
ADP Employment Change is a private estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector jobs based on payroll data from ADP.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
A monthly, payroll-data-based measure of changes in US private-sector employment.
Ai Group Australian Industry Index
A monthly survey-based gauge of whether activity in Australian industrial sectors is expanding or contracting.
Albania Balance of Trade
Albania Balance of Trade measures the difference between the value of Albania’s goods exports and goods imports.