Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Regional trading summaries2026-11-03What moved the market during each session, why it mattered, and what you can take into tomorrow.
Normal liquidity · no high-impact events scheduled.
EUR/USD Navigates US Election Uncertainty and RBA Rate Decision
The EUR/USD pair experienced a session defined by political uncertainty and regional central bank activity, with volatility remaining elevated as traders monitored the start of the US Midterm Elections.
Session Intelligence
The session was marked by a hesitant tone as the market weighed the implications of the US Midterm Elections and the RBA rate hike.
The start of the US election cycle served as the primary anchor for USD sentiment, keeping EUR/USD in a state of watchful consolidation.
Price action remained largely within the established Asian session high and low, lacking the directional drive for a breakout.
High volatility coupled with range-bound structure made for challenging conditions where confirmation was essential to avoid whipsaws.
Waiting for session boundaries to be established proved more valuable than trying to predict the direction of the election-driven USD sentiment.
Session Timeline
- 00:00Session Open
EUR/USD begins the Asian session as US Midterm Election polls open.
- 03:30RBA Rate Decision
RBA raises interest rates to 4.85%, meeting the market forecast.
- 03:30Volatility Spike
EUR/USD sees increased volatility following the AUD-denominated news releases.
- 07:30Swiss Inflation Watch
Market attention briefly shifts to European regional data ahead of the London transition.
- 08:00Session Close
The pair finishes the window within its initial range, awaiting London's entry.
Market Story
The Asian session opened with a focus on the US Midterm Elections, creating a cautious atmosphere for EUR/USD. Early price action was largely exploratory as the market established initial boundaries in the absence of major Eurozone data, though liquidity remained normal throughout the window.
Midway through the session, the RBA Interest Rate Decision provided a focal point for regional sentiment. The decision to raise rates to 4.85%, which was in line with forecasts, coincided with a shift in broader risk appetite that influenced the USD leg of the pair. This period saw increased activity as the market processed the accompanying monetary policy statements.
As the London open approached, EUR/USD remained within the range established earlier in the morning. The session concluded with participants looking toward upcoming European inflation data and the continuation of the US political cycle, maintaining the cautious tone that characterised the open.
Biggest Driver
As a primary driver of USD sentiment, the commencement of the Midterm Elections introduced a layer of fundamental uncertainty. This influenced the pair's risk premium and encouraged a 'wait-and-see' approach among institutional participants during the overnight hours. The lack of immediate results meant that USD positioning remained sensitive to broader geopolitical shifts, keeping EUR/USD within a disciplined but volatile framework.
Market Behaviour
EUR/USD exhibited structural development consistent with a 'price building' phase. The instrument established a clear Asian session high and low early in the window, with subsequent price action contained within these markers. There was evidence of elevated volatility, particularly around the 03:30 UK event window, but the pair lacked the momentum to sustain a breakout from its initial session range, ultimately consolidating ahead of the London transition.
What Materially Influenced the Market
- RBA Interest Rate Decisionmoderate
The hike to 4.85% met market expectations, providing a brief period of directional clarity for commodity currencies that spilled over into general USD sentiment during the Asian window.
- RBA Press Conferencelow
Ongoing commentary from the RBA provided further context for the rate hike, though its direct impact on EUR/USD was secondary to broader USD-centric drivers.
Trading Conditions
range-bound with elevated volatility
- Volatility
- high
- Trend Quality
- low
Affected Trading Profiles
- EUR/USD · Range trading inside well-defined levels
Trading Lesson
When high-impact political events begin, markets often respect initial session boundaries as participants avoid committing to large positions before the first wave of results.
Today's Trading Plan Review
What the Plan Got Right
- Correctly identified the Asian high and low as the primary reference points for the session.
- Identified the 03:30 UK window as a period of significant activity.
- Accurately assessed the session as having elevated volatility and cautious sentiment.
What Differed
- While volatility was elevated as expected, the lack of a clear breakout meant the 'decision window' near the London open remained range-bound rather than establishing a new trend.
What Traders Could Learn
Respecting the 'avoid' windows during secondary high-impact news (like the RBA) prevents being caught in noise that does not fundamentally change the primary pair's structure.
Trading Coach
What You Should Have Done
You should have focused on marking the session extremes and staying observant during the RBA release. An experienced trader would have recognized that despite the high volatility, EUR/USD was lacking a catalyst for a sustained breakout, favoring a strategy that involved waiting for the London open to provide more reliable volume and structural confirmation.
Common Mistake Today
Many traders would have been tempted to trade the initial volatility at 03:30 UK, assuming the RBA move would spark a major trend in EUR/USD, only to see price revert quickly to the session mean.
Tomorrow's Focus
Practice disciplined level marking at the start of the session and commit to waiting for a full candle close outside of those levels before considering a directional bias.
Looking Ahead
The US JOLTs Job Openings report is scheduled for 15:00 UK, which will be monitored for its impact on USD strength and labor market health.
Retrospective educational summary. Describes what already happened during this session — not a prediction, not a trade signal, and not financial advice.
London Session Summary
No EUR/USD summary available for this session.
New York Session Summary
No EUR/USD summary available for this session.
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