Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

A New York Fed report, as highlighted by CNBC, argues that the rise in the cost of many everyday items can be traced to tariff policy. Using data on 67 categories of goods, the researchers estimate that prices were 2.9 percentage points higher as of February than they would have been in the absence of the tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026.

The analysis suggests that without those levies, prices for the studied products would have pulled back by almost 1% over the same period. The report also finds that tariff-related price pressure is not confined to the direct effect of the levies: roughly two-thirds of the impact comes from the tariffs themselves, with the rest attributed to second-round effects, including costs flowing through to goods that rely on imported parts and materials.

The study also points to persistence. It notes that annual price growth for the tracked goods peaked at the start of 2026, but says consumers are still expected to pay elevated prices into 2027. For the FX backdrop, this matters because it reinforces a channel from trade policy to inflation outcomes and, by extension, to US rate expectations.

Traders should watch for further developments on how tariff rates evolve legally and operationally, and for any additional NY Fed or broader data-backed work that quantifies pass-through into consumer prices and inflation expectations over 2027.