Goldman: Diesel prices set to stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand

CNBC reports that Goldman Sachs expects diesel prices to remain high through 2027, arguing that refinery constraints will require “demand destruction” to prevent a rebound in consumption from overwhelming limited refining capacity. The article cites Goldman’s forecast that global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads will average above $40 per barrel in 2027, versus a “usual level” around $20.

The bank’s view is tied to capacity and supply conditions. Goldman expects 2026 to see “negative refining capacity growth,” with refining capacity outside China contracting by roughly 300,000 barrels per day. The article also points to about 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remaining offline and to further restrictions on diesel supply from damaged Russian facilities, alongside the need for deferred maintenance that can temporarily reduce US refinery runs.

The story also addresses recent policy supply attempts: it references a Group of Seven agreement to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over four months, including a front-loaded diesel release in the first 20 days. However, experts cited in the article are not optimistic that this will solve the longer-run “stock problem”; one analyst says replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.

For FX, the key thing to watch is whether persistent refined-product tightness translates into broader inflation expectations and changes in central-bank rate paths, and how that feeds through to growth assumptions and risk sentiment. You would also want to monitor whether cracks ease because inventory rebuilding progresses faster than expected, or whether refinery downtime and offline capacity keep prices elevated into 2027.