Published:
GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025
BEA’s third estimate shows real US GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in Q2 2026 (up from 2.5% in Q1), with revisions higher versus the second estimate on investment, consumer spending and government spending. The GDP price measures and PCE price index were revised down versus the prior estimate.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, while the first-quarter growth rate was revised to 2.5%. The third estimate also revised Q2 real GDP up by 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate, with BEA attributing the change primarily to upward revisions to investment, consumer spending and government spending.
On the demand side, consumer spending, investment and exports contributed to the increase in real GDP. BEA also noted that imports increased, acting as a subtraction in GDP accounting. Looking through the lens of production, the rise was supported by higher real value added across private services-producing industries (+2.5%) and private goods-producing industries (+2.3%), with government value added rising less than 0.1%.
For pricing, BEA revised down the gross domestic purchases price index to 5.6% for the quarter (and the PCE price index to 5.0%), while the PCE price index excluding food and energy was also revised down to 3.3%. BEA additionally reported that profits from current production increased by $384.0 billion in Q2, though that was revised down by $16.9 billion from the prior estimate.
For FX-relevant interpretation, traders will typically look next at whether this mix of firmer activity but eased price gauges reinforces or challenges the prevailing view of the US policy path. The revisions to PCE-related measures are particularly important for how inflation expectations may evolve.
Why this matters for FX
A stronger-than-previously estimated growth profile supports expectations for US demand and, indirectly, the path for interest rates. Offsetting this, the downward revisions to the GDP and PCE inflation measures temper near-term inflation pressure signals, affecting how strongly markets may price further monetary tightening or timing of easing. Corporate profits and the composition of growth (consumer, investment and exports, with imports rising) also matter for assessing underlying momentum and the earnings backdrop that can influence financial conditions.