Published:
Federal Reserve Board and FOMC release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
The Fed publishes the participants’ September 15-16 FOMC economic projections (tables and charts), released 2:00 p.m. EDT on 16 September 2026.
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee have released the economic projections produced by FOMC participants alongside their September 15–16 meeting. The publication consists of attached tables and charts summarising those projections, released at 2:00 p.m. EDT on September 16, 2026.
For FX markets, the key value in these projections is that they translate policymakers’ assessment of the economy into a structured baseline: how inflation, economic activity and labour-market conditions are expected to evolve. Because those expectations are closely linked to the likely future setting of policy rates, revisions can move the market’s perceived probability of future rate hikes or cuts.
Traders typically watch whether the projection paths are adjusted compared with the previous round, and whether there are notable differences across participants. Those details matter because they can signal changes in how persistent policymakers believe inflation pressures are, and how much economic momentum they expect going forward.
Next, the market will focus on the projections’ implications for the Fed’s reaction function—especially any shift in the projected inflation trajectory—and how they align with (or diverge from) other Fed communication around the same meeting.
Why this matters for FX
Updated central-bank projections are a direct input into FX pricing because they shape the market-implied path of US interest rates and the Fed’s longer-run view of inflation and activity. Changes to the outlook for inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate can shift expectations for how restrictive policy will need to be, affecting USD interest-rate differentials and risk sentiment.