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Fed rate hikes are coming, but not this week: CNBC survey
A CNBC survey of 30 fund managers and economists finds 93% expect the Fed to pause this week, while 76% expect a rate hike at the next meeting in December, and more than half foresee about two hikes next year. Respondents cite concerns ranging from “warm to hot” inflation and strong growth to worries about weakening real wages and a shaky equity backdrop.
CNBC’s Fed survey, conducted before upcoming meetings and covering 30 fund managers, strategists and economists, points to a clear split on timing. A large majority expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy unchanged at this week’s meeting (93%), but 76% anticipate a rate hike at the next meeting in December. More than half of respondents also expect the Fed to deliver roughly two rate hikes on average next year.
Respondents frame the debate around the balance between inflation persistence and growth conditions. Several comments in the survey suggest that, with nominal GDP running in a 6–8% range and leading inflation indicators described as “warm to hot,” hesitation to raise rates is hard to justify. At the same time, a plurality of 40% say the Fed must slow growth below potential to solve the inflation problem, while others argue the economy need not be slowed as much.
The survey also quantifies an economics baseline that can influence rate expectations: GDP for this year is expected to rise to 2.4% (down slightly from the prior survey, but still above potential), ticking down to 2.2% for 2027. Unemployment is seen edging up to 4.4% in 2027 from 4.2% currently, while CPI is expected to fall toward 3.6% from 3.7% and then more meaningfully in 2027 to 2.6%. Oil is forecast lower than at present but higher than earlier estimates.
For FX traders, the key watch is whether these survey-implied expectations align with incoming inflation and growth data, and whether dissenting views—such as concerns about weakening real wages, rising rates and recession risk—gain traction ahead of December.
Why this matters for FX
This survey is a proxy for near-term US rate-path expectations, which feed directly into US interest-rate expectations and the USD via yield differentials and broader financial conditions. If the market shifts towards a sooner/more persistent tightening cycle, US yields and the USD typically gain support; if recession fears dominate, that can instead restrain the pace of expected hikes.