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China’s exports likely grew by double-digits in September
A Reuters poll cited by CNBC expects China’s September exports to rise about 25.5% year-on-year, while imports are forecast to slow to 24.5%. The article links stronger exports to demand for AI/data-center parts, highlights weaker domestic demand, and notes recent tariff rollbacks and EU limits on hybrid car exports.
CNBC, citing a Reuters poll, reports that China’s September exports are expected to grow by about 25.5% year-on-year, a pickup from August, ahead of the scheduled data release. The same poll suggests imports could slow to around 24.5% year-on-year from 28.2% in August. The piece frames this as part of a larger pattern earlier this year, when exports and imports each posted their fastest pace in five years.
The article attributes the export strength to global demand for AI-related goods and parts used to power data centers. It also notes that, despite the trade momentum, China has struggled to broaden domestic demand. It further points to the stabilisation of tensions with the United States “on a single-country basis” as supportive to the trade flow environment.
On policy and trade measures, CNBC says the US and China announced plans to roll back tariffs on $30 billion of goods from each side and to extend a broader trade truce by two months to January. It also adds that the European Union announced China agreed to halve its exports of hybrid-powered cars to the bloc following high-level talks in Beijing.
For FX traders, the key thing to watch next is whether the upcoming official export/import prints confirm the poll’s gap between export momentum and a cooling in imports, and how that interacts with evolving tariff conditions between China, the US and the EU. That mix can influence expectations for China’s growth and external balance.
Why this matters for FX
Faster export growth in China can affect FX via two main channels: first, it shifts expectations for Chinese external demand, industrial activity and overall growth momentum, which feeds into rates and risk sentiment for currencies tied to China. Second, the trade backdrop in the story—tariff rollbacks with the US and EU actions affecting car exports—speaks to the policy and terms-of-trade environment, which can influence the balance of payments outlook and broader global demand conditions. The AI/data-center supply chain emphasis also matters for the composition of trade and potential pricing power in Chinese exports.