Published:
Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year
CNBC reports that, based on Kalshi prediction-market odds, Anthropic is the only major AI-related company with a greater-than-50% chance of officially announcing an IPO in 2026, after OpenAI ruling out a 2026 debut. It also notes that US IPOs priced in 2026 are down 33% versus 2025, while some AI growth assumptions have come under pressure following Anthropic’s reported third-quarter revenue of $16.8bn.
CNBC says expectations for large new US IPOs have cooled into 2026. It points to OpenAI ruling out a public listing in 2026 and to multiple other planned offerings being postponed, leaving Anthropic as the main remaining candidate in the AI trade narrative.
The report cites Kalshi prediction-market odds to frame positioning: among companies still considered open to trade on the platform, only Anthropic is shown with more than 50% odds of an “official” IPO announcement in 2026 (with OpenAI described separately as having low odds after comments by CEO Sam Altman). It also notes that while IPO proceeds have risen on the year, the number of US IPOs priced is down 33% versus 2025, citing Renaissance Capital.
For a macro link, the article flags that investors are scrutinising AI growth expectations. It references Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue of $16.8bn and the implication that growth deceleration may complicate how the market extrapolates development and pricing dynamics. That matters for FX indirectly through shifts in global risk sentiment and capital-market liquidity conditions, which can influence cross-border portfolio flows and required returns.
What to watch next is whether the AI IPO pipeline re-accelerates or continues to stall, and whether any further disclosures alter expectations for sector-wide growth and funding needs. Even without a direct policy angle, changes in capital markets confidence often feed into FX through risk premia and global financial conditions.
Why this matters for FX
An IPO “window” can affect broader risk appetite, liquidity preferences and expectations for growth financing in tech—channels that can spill over into sovereign and FX markets via global portfolio flows and funding conditions. In this story, the key macro-relevant link is the reported slowdown in IPO pricing and the uncertainty around AI-sector growth assumptions, both of which can shift expectations for capital markets conditions rather than just company-specific outcomes. Currencies most exposed are typically those sensitive to global risk sentiment and cross-border portfolio flows (including USD via risk premium and global carry dynamics), though the article is not explicit on FX moves.